Canadian Election - Turning Bad

By Harold Lavender

The Canadian federal election to be held January 23,is unlikely to resolve an ongoing political crisis of governability. Instead it is likely to produce another  minority government of unknown duration.

However, given the lack of alternatives there is little to cheer about. Indeed, at this point the race has shifted to the point where a minority right -wing Conservative government appears probable.

In December the opposition parties, of very diverse stripes, banded together to win a non-confidence motion brining down the Liberal minority government of Paul Martin. The Liberal government has been shown as flagrantly corrupt. The Gomery Commission found evidence  of " an elaborate scheme of kickbacks" in the federal sponsorship program in the province of Quebec.

This systemic scandal created disgust in Quebec, which is 80 percent francophone and  fuelled mass sentiment in the words of a popular song to "liberate  us from the Liberals." The prime beneficiary is the pro-sovreigntist Bloc Quebecois which appears poised for a close to complete
sweep of Quebec seats.  Many in Quebec view themselves as a separate nation. A 1995 referendum on sovereignty failed with 49 percent voting  Yes.

 The current strength of the Bloc Quebeois makes it difficult for either the Liberals or Conservatives to form a majority federal government.

 The scandal ridden  Liberals  who have lengthy track record of promising reforms at election time  and never delivering  certainly deserve to be turfed out..

They  are trying to make people forge their record   with messages that the economy is strong. Rising natural resources revenues and exports have fuelled economic growth. Corporations and the wealthy have been the big winners

 Since 1984 majority Conservative (Brian Mulroney) and Liberal (Jean Chretien) governments have rammed through the neo-liberal agenda of free trade and cutbacks to public services, benefiting capital at the expense of the working class and poor ,whose  increasingly desperate plight is
highlighted by the rapid increase in homelessness..

The  Liberals are banking on  fear of  Conservative leader Stephen Harper, a social conservative , from the oil rich and right-wing province of Alberta to keep them in office.

Harper wants to re-open the issue of same sex marriage legalized by court rulings and then Parliament  in 2005.

 In the 2004 election the Liberals staved off defeat by successfully attacking   Harper for wanting to send Canadian troops to Iraq.   But will the fear  factor be enough this time?

The Liberals began the race ahead., But now the  Conservatives have surged into the lead in the polls They appear to have found a successful wedge issue with "Get tough on Crime" ,The Conservatives are also promising major tax cuts.  Their figures  don't add up which means a future Conservative government  would likely run  a deficit and/or make  drastic cuts to federally funded social programs

The social  democratic New Democratic party (NDP) trying to position itself as an alternative "to corruption and conservatism   is running at 18 percent in the polls. The Bloc Quebeocis has
12 percent (50 percent in Quebec) and the Greens 5.
 

Small  Expectations

Most progressive or soft left opinion (the far left is tiny) in Canada outside Quebec  favours the return of a Liberal minority  with the NDP holding the balance of power. From a narrowly "realist" perspective this is viewed as the most favourable scenario to win reforms.  Though for others it
is quite pathetic and wrong headed to look to the Liberals as deliverers of reforms or  the best we can expect.

 

No  Left Turn

The federal NDP ,was largely irrelevant in 1990's(a few outspoken MP's aside) dropping to under 10  percent electoral support.  In 2002 a new leader Jack Layton set out to revive the party.  Last election the NDP vote rose back  to 16 percent but this did not translate into seats (the NDP got
19 seats- as opposed to nearly 50 under proportional representation).

Some on the left saw the ascension of Layton as an oportunity. Others, including this author were sceptical seeing  primarily as as move to modernize the NDP's image and increase its appeal to left liberal opinion)

Last year the Liberals had to accept NDP amendments to pass their budget. The Liberals deferred (to be introduced in other ways) big corporate tax cuts and agreed to an extra $4 billion in badly needed social and infrastructure spending. (little yet delivered).

The NDP choose to identify the budget  as its own and proclaim this is what electing more NDP MP's in Ottawa  can do. However, the budget contained a number of heinous features, most notably  plans for multi-billion dollar increases in military spending

In this campaign the drift of the NDP to the liberal centre has continued. Jack Layton has differentiated on a few issues ,opposing prizatization of health care and favouring social inveestment of the federal surplus rather than new tax cuts. However Layton  has stressed the NDP will be fiscally responsible (ie balance the budget) and will not raise corporate taxes.

 The NDP has also fallen into line with the  Conservative law and order theme unveiling its own plan to "fight crime".

On foreign policy the NDP has opposed the war in Iraq and the George W.Bush agenda . But it has failed to challenge the Canadian military, the false image of Canada as a peacekeeper  the war on terrorism and Canadian  imperialism In particular the NDP has not spoken out against Canda's role
in the occupation of Haiti and Afghanistan.

 

Poor Choices

Many  will vote for the NDP because there it is theonly palatable choice on the ballot.

The Greens are runing in all riding, but are not left Under leader Jim Harris  a former Conservative they have a  pro-market orientation.

However many will not vote -beause they see no one worth voting for or believe that all politicians and parties are liars. Voterturnout in Canada, comparable to Britian  is falling and could  hit record lows this election

In the late's 1990's there was a rise of the global justice movement, growth of vague anti-capitalist sentiment and support for direct action. However these new  movements have  stalled in the more repressive post 9/11 climate

 Much of the new radicalization that has occurred is  strongly anti-electorlaist.

 Many issues of concern from anti-poverty, to aboriginal rights, to the environment to anti racism and immigrants and refugee rights, to Canadian imperialism  are off the electoral agenda.

 Mass mobilization and sentiment pressured the Liberals not to send troops to Iraq. (but has since fallen off  dramatically)  This  election mobilization appears much too low to impact the  campaign. Episodic  mass working class struggles  continue ,however  they are largely occurring at a provincial level.

Without broad struggles- the situation can easily shift to the right.

 

 The Perils of Strategic Voting

Some hope to counter the the prospect of a Tory government  regarded as the main threat via strategic voting . Put simply this means voting Liberal expect in seats where the the NDP has a strong chance of winning.

The Canadian Auto Workers, once viewed on the left of the union movement have openly embraced this strategy. Prime Paul Minister  Martin addressed the CAW convention, a sorry and opportunist spectacle The strategy adopted by CAW President Buzz Hargrove has sparked considerable criticism.  However, most of the criticism has been social democratic.

 The notion of a Liberal-labour alliance is poisonous and would be a step backward for working class independence One need only check the results of US labour's ties to the  Democratic party
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But a  larger problem is the the NDP's  conversion to social liberalism. Where it does hold office provincially it governs in a manner similar  to New Labour in Britain

 As a result the NDP is highly vulnerable to strategic voting. The NDP is hoping to gain seats but this could evaporate on election night.

 

Canadian Nationalism

Nationalism has  been prominent this campaign  Prime Minister Martin stepped up public attacks on George Bush (to play to widespread anti-Bush sentiment). The US ambassador to Canada, David Wilkins publicly said that anti-American electoral rhetoric could do long term damage to Canada-US relations.  The NDP  is attempting to outbid the Liberals in its appeal to Canadian nationalism

 The Conservatives have also tried to mask their agenda by changing their tune. Conservative ads  say " Stand up  Canada vote Conservative." Their plans for further major increases in military spending are wrapped in the Canadian flag.

Is Canadian nationalism progressive? A sector of the small radical left including the New socialist Group say no.

Canada often acts a junior partner of US imperialism but it is an imperialist power in its own right.  Canada capital has gone global expanding its foreign direct investments by 500 percent in the last 15 years.

Canada is historically a colonial settler state. By far the most oppressed section of the population are aboriginal people(3 percent of the population) whose national rights have not been recognized.

Today, the Canadian state is tightening  national and border security through a racist crackdown against refugees and immigrants.

 Finally the issue of "national unity " persists and has been  quite prominent in  election campaign   with the Liberals  playing to fear of " Quebec separatism"

 The Liberal government passed a Clarity Bill which would seek to put conditions on (in effect deny) Quebec's  right  to self-determination The NDP has backtracked and openly support this law.

Some Canadian nationalist would paint the Conservatives (pro Washington) and the Bloc Quebeocis as  twin enemies of  Canada.

The left in Canada outside Quebec needs to take a totally different course To advance it  needs to seek to find common cause with  the left in  Quebec( the broad mass of which is  pro-sovereigntist)
Unfortunately in  both its reaction to the  Gomery Commission (viewed as an unwelcome diversion)  and  the federal election ,it has blown any chance to make alliances.

January 23, could be a bad night. To get beyond it will require a resumption of mass struggle . But equally, clear political perspectives are needed.
 

 

 

Jan 2006

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