Colchester; post election analysis

Tim Oxton

Dear Jim



Only two corrections are needed. In Pyefleet the percentage of 11.53% applies to me and not to the Labour candidate. Please adjust this on the version that you post to your website.



The other correction is that the Tories gained Prettygate from the Lib Dems (I had not realised this at the time I wrote the report). So the general picture is that the Tories are up 2, the Lib Dems are down 1, and Independents are down 1.



You are welcome to use any part of my report if you think it applies to other areas.



It is fair to call us Lefties because we are all at the progressive end of the political spectrum – or at least, I think so. Jeannine is from a rock solid old Labour family but I haven’t asked her about her politics. Jack is of a Labour family and voted Labour on Thursday. Susan is a committed member of Friends of the Earth and has a spent criminal conviction for attempting to damage the fence of a USAF base. Edmund was a paid up Labour Party member until 31.12.2005 but then allowed his membership to lapse. You know about John and me.



We truthfully described ourselves as none of us belonging to any political party. If we had not done this, we would not have received the funds to pay for the leaflets. £150 came from a card-carrying Conservative, a retired solicitor, who has since been socially ostracised because he refused to help in the Lexden Conservative committee room as he usually does. £20 came from a card-carrying Lib Dem. Another £20 came from a sitting Lib Dem councillor. We have consistently kept ourselves at arm’s length from all political parties and tried to keep it as a genuine community action campaign but without calling it that.



cheers and thanks



Tim




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Jim Jepps [mailto:jimjepps@hotmail.com]
Sent: 06 May 2006 14:18
To: oxton@onetel.com
Subject: RE: FW: Local election results



hi tim,

thanks for this - i'm posting these results up in a sec. if you could check to see they are right that would be handy.

but more importantly we are going to publish some analysis of particular area elections and you're analysis would fit very well. may i use it?

i've made a few changes just to suit the site etc. so below i've got the version i would use - is that ok? well done by the way particularly yourself and john very impressive results.



Yours,



Jim Jepps

07956 605634







Overall, the situation in Colchester is barely changed, the Tories slightly tightening their grip by gaining one seat from an independent (Tiptree). Also, Tories gained Stanway from Lib Dems, and Lib Dems gained Shrub End from Tories. The Labour vote was generally down, no doubt for national reasons. The Greens did well in several wards, but not well enough.



In the wards we contested, the results were as follows:





Birch & Winstree



Tory 1224

Lib Dem 325

Labour 128

Green 108

Jeannine McAndrew 53 (2.88%)



Fordham & Stour



Tory 942

Lib Dem 176

Labour 119

Green 114

Jack Pooley 63 (4.46%)



Lexden



Tory 1282

Lib Dem 385

Green 105

Labour 103

Susan Francis 73 (3.75%)



Mile End



Tory 939

Lib Dem 791

Green 130

Labour 125

Edmund Chinnery 46 (2.26%)



Pyefleet



Tory 532

Lib Dem 108

Tim Oxton 100

Green 67

Labour 60 (11.53%)



West Mersea



Tory 1389

Green 206

Labour 199

John Coombes 176 (8.93%)



Comments on these.



Birch & Winstree. Leaflets distributed too late (75% of them distributed from 03/05 afternoon to 04/05 midday). Also at least half of them distributed to the large modern private Tiptree Grove estate in Tiptree, seemingly inhabited by recently-arrived people living lives of stressed-out competitive desperation – easy to deliver to, but probably very few of them interested in our campaign).



Fordham & Stour. Again, many leaflets distributed too late (02/05 afternoon/evening), and many of them to the Keelers Way area of Great Horkesley – a downmarket and somewhat older version of Tiptree Grove.



Lexden. Many leaflets distributed too late (03/05 afternoon and 04/05 afternoon). Unusually, the sitting Tory councillor is said to be genuinely popular.



Mile End. This low percentage is particularly disappointing because Edmund distributed all his 1000 leaflets last weekend, and even printed and distributed a few extra ones. However, it was the only marginal ward that we contested (all the others were, and remain, rock-solid Tory). People wanting to defeat the sitting Tory will have seen a vote for us as a wasted vote and will have voted Lib Dem.



Pyefleet. The ward with the fewest voters, so we achieved almost total coverage with our quota of leaflets, most of them distributed at the weekend. Predominantly inhabited by long-term local people who seem to care more about how the council is run.



West Mersea. Again, a long-established local population, with a relatively good bus service, which for a substantial minority is very important. We distributed only 750 leaflets, but got almost all of them out by the weekend. The Lib Dems’ failure to provide a candidate will have helped us.



The Green tactic of standing a candidate in every ward, even though they only had the resources to campaign in two, undoubtedly took votes away from us. If we had decided to stand earlier, we might have persuaded them not to stand in some of the wards that we contested. But their national office might not have allowed this.



While 18,500 people (not all on the Colchester Borough electoral register) have signed our petition, there were not enough of them in the six wards to make a serious difference. We avoided total humiliation but we did not make the hoped-for breakthrough. The Tories have renewed their licence to carry on destroying our town. It looks as if the Deputy Prime Minister (whoever may be in that office next week) is the only person who can save our bus station now.


 

 

 

May 2006

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