The Green Party Result

Peter Cranie, Green Party NEC

Our target at this election was a media friendly 100 council seats. Internally we were looking at this as a top performance, expecting to get somewhere in the mid-80s as a minimum, but satisfied by our result of 91 councillors, a gain of 20 on the night, with several holds and no losses. We narrowly lost out on (100 votes or less) further seats in Enfield, Gosport, Lambeth and Kirklees. What makes this more remarkable is that this was an election that did not include the Green strongholds of Brighton and Lancaster, both of which will have all-out elections next year. The victory in this week’s by-election in Scarborough is an example of why we expect our councillor number to tick up to the mid-90s ahead of the 2007 elections.

The most interesting aspect of the campaign for us is that we were able to compete with the big three parties for airtime. Our national credibility was high, primarily because we were contesting 30% of all the seats up for election, just short of our highest ever total achieved in 1990. Considering that none of the major parties actually have 100% coverage, we appeared to be a credible, emerging force because we stood wherever we could.

Our second reason for enhanced credibility at this election was our targeting strategy at a local level. We were well placed to make 15 to 30 gains and this was based on years of work in the local areas and having already established political groups on a number of councils.

Thirdly, the political agenda moved onto our territory for a whole week of the campaign. The Conservatives fought hard to display their green credentials, but we had prepared a briefing with their dismal record at a local level. This was picked up on by the media, who then also caught out the Cameron green spin in other respects. For the Tories it was a successful campaign largely because Labour and the Lib Dems did really badly.

For a week the Liberal Democrats disappeared from media view, with Ming Campbell completely off the political pace, and when he did emerge he walked into not just one, but two planned Green ambushes. In Norwich, Campbell staged a visit due to mounting local pressure. He was assaulted by a dismal record of the Lib Dems in Norwich and local government generally, the local incinerator campaign backed by the Lib Dems and the fact that a Lib Dem councillor had earlier in the year been found guilty of misleading the public over a proposed road scheme. Unsurprisingly the Greens took 4 seats from the Lib Dems in Norwich. If we manage to take just two more next year, which is highly likely, Greens will be the official opposition group on the council.

A week later, Campbell visited Liverpool on the day we were able to announce our second defection of the campaign, from the Lib Dem group here. Our councillor went on record criticising the dismal Lib Dem recycling rate and highlighting that the Lib Dem council still paid higher mileage allowances for bigger cars, for both councillors and officers. Needless to say, the Lib Dems actually lost three seats to Labour in Liverpool, completely bucking the national trend.

It is clear to us that the Lib Dems have made the wrong tactical choice as leader. Campbell is steady and uninspiring and at the very best, you can say he is getting bad tactical advice. Fortunately for the Greens, the alternatives are not plausible at the moment, which means that Campbell is likely to take them all the way up to the next General Election. Lib Dem support amongst voters is not entrenched in the same way that Labour or Conservative loyalty can be. Steady is not going to enable the Lib Dems to make much progress and is already looking like a defensive position ahead of the next General Election. Their vote is soft and Greens, once established, can quickly erode their electoral base.

Despite the media frenzy over the far right, we continued to steadily make the news, particularly at a regional level and in the written media. Under BBC reporting guidelines, political parties have to be running campaigns (plural) locally and regionally, and we were therefore able to justify our coverage through our sheer number of candidates. Single or small number of seat parties struggled to make a media impact at the local level, with the exception of the far right BNP.

I am conducting some separate research into their gains at this election. Outside of Barking and Dagenham, the gains were not spectacular, but I have observed that the far right parties are exploiting gaps left due to the targeting policies of all other parties. In Liverpool they managed a second place finish in Norris Green largely because the Lib Dems abandoned the area this time to defend other seats while the Conservatives had abandoned it long ago.

The Greens stood a candidate in this ward but we did not campaign here. If the only leaflets presented to voters are from the Labour or BNP, it is unsurprising that the far right make this kind of advance. It is a difficult situation, because Greens and other left parties must target our limited resources in a way that helps elect their own leading candidates as councillors. However it is clearly unacceptable to give any far right party a clear run into second place and the political credibility that it allows them. Further work must be done on this subject.

Labour got a bloody nose, but this is unlikely to be terminal for Blair yet. He seems determined to stay in office for 10 years, at least, or possibly 11 so that he can outlast Thatcher. Labour MPs could remove him, but the party as a whole seems to have become so supine, that they are likely to wait it out knowing he will not renege on his pledge to step down before the end of his term. However, the longer he remains, the more likely we will see a repeat of the Major 1992 election in 2010, rather than a "big bang" Euro + General Election in 2009. Unless the economy looks as though it is heading into the buffers in 2008, I would now expect a five year term from this Labour government.

 

Results on the Left

Salma Yaqoob’s election in Sparkbrook in Birmingham is to be applauded. British politics will be better for her presence and I look forward to seeing her continue to make mainstream politicians uncomfortable with her astute insights and ability to expose the pre-conceptions of her fellow interviewees. It may also be possible for Respect to win a second or possibly third Birmingham seat in 2007 on the back of her personal political reputation. However, with just 3 seats out of 18 from outside London, there is a considerable work to do for Respect to establish a national profile.

Respect now has two high profile significant figureheads in Galloway and Yaqoob, both of whom are capable and engaging media figures. Outside of London and Birmingham however, Respect’s has only one other area with elected representatives, which is Preston. This is also the only area where they have a councillor with an SWP background. If Respect fails to secure re-election in Preston in 2007 it will be interesting to see how it evolves from its current form, with all of its elected representatives owing less to the SWP’s organisational strengths and more to their community based support.

This will be a huge opportunity for Respect to move forward but I would expect some tension as the agenda is less influenced by the mass movement focus of the SWP and increasingly by the practical concerns of its elected councillors and the people they represent. How this plays out, with votes on difficult issues at conferences and at local meetings, will be interesting. Should a "packing the meeting" approach be used to force through SWP rather than local priorities, there is likely to be conflict that could rapidly escalate. Respect’s own internal structures will need to be reformed to prevent this happening.

If as expected, Galloway departs in 2009/10, Respect can call on Salma Yaqoob as an equally capable national figure to speak for them. With either Galloway or Yaqoob as a focus, I would expect Respect to remain on the British political scene for some time. Losing Galloway to a future career in the media is now widely expected. Losing Yaqoob would be catastrophic for them.

Quietly but noticeably, the Socialist Party have built up an impressive reputation at a local level, gaining and holding their 7 seats by retaining a strong community focus, and working at a local level. I’d particularly highlight the election of Dr Jackie Grunsell in Kirklees on the back of the Save Huddersfield NHS campaign. This shows that genuine community involvement, irrespective of political background, can enable committed progressive candidates to get elected.

The Community Action Party in Wigan is still the main opposition party there with 15 seats, presenting a genuine left of Labour alternative to the local voters. Despite the Labour Party’s strong attempts to drive out the CAP, they continue to offer sensible alternatives to New Labour policies being trickled down to a local level. The IWCA remain a feature in Oxford politics and once again demonstrate the value of genuine commitment to the local community.

What is an overall disappointment is that there was no radical shift to left of centre parties at a national level. Even the Liberal Democrats, fighting on the soggy middle ground, largely failed to benefit from the Labour’s bad night, with the Conservatives seen as the victors. Only in areas where there is an established record of alternative parties working hard in their local communities, or exceptional personalities such as Galloway and Yaqoob, have breakthroughs for left parties happened.

 

Where Do We Go From Here?

This site is dedicated to unity, but as always, we as Greens remain a tricky proposition for everyone else on the left, because we don’t neatly fit into the left/right spectrum viewed in a historical context. On a positive note, informal understandings at a local level were developed in many areas of London. This was in line with the guidance I outlined in my 2005 post election debrief on Socialist Unity Network. Lambeth was a good example of this. Local Greens allowed Respect a clear run at their target ward of Vassall. These informal arrangements with the Greens were not the exclusive preserve of Respect, and in a number of areas, there were similar informal understandings with the Liberal Democrats.

Realistically there are also going to be contests where Greens and Respect are in competition, but it is how these contests are perceived by the respective parties that is important. A post election SWP briefing (08/05/06) obtained by the Green Party states:

"It's also worth noting that in Preston, Newham and Tower Hamlets the Green Party ran spoiling candidates, which meant that we lost at least three seats!"

Greens don’t share this view of electoral competition, perhaps because we have been contesting elections for a lot longer and have a much more realistic expectation of what electoral co-operation involves. To give examples, we could equally point to "spoiler" Labour Party candidates in Huddersfield, "spoiler" Liberal Democrats in Widnes or even Respect’s "spoiler" candidate in Hackney where we got one candidate elected but our second candidate missed out by less than 51 votes. The Greens and Respect are electoral competitors and these situations should be expected in this stage of the electoral cycle.

Electoral results have to be viewed in this way without resorting to negativity. A view that Respect have some entitlement to Green votes or expect that Greens should step down or not contest important strategic areas ahead of proportional elections to come, is unrealistic. It is absolutely clear that Respect, like the Greens, are looking to the longer term and are intending to compete at these proportional elections, where we will be in direct competition for votes.

The SWPbriefing goes onto make the following point:

"The next national set of elections in 2 years time will be the entirely different European elections and the Mayoral and GLA elections in London."

Respect are planning to step up their activity in the run up to the Euro 2009 elections nationwide. The Green Party will be standing more candidates and increasing our activity in the seats we are standing in as we seek to add to our current tally of 2 Euro MPs. It will be interesting to see whether the Socialist Party also intends to stand list candidates in the London GLA elections in 2008 and the Euros in 2009.

It is clear that there are fundamental differences in the Green approach to politics compared to the tactics (necessarily) adopted by Respect, UKIP, the Socialist Party and unfortunately, the BNP. The Greens will contest seats citywide in urban areas wherever possible, in an attempt to compete for coverage with the big 3 parties. The benefits to us are a national election broadcast, better local media coverage and a reputation for trying to match upwards, not downwards, with genuine ambition to become a major player in British politics.

The tactics adopted by Respect and other parties, of serious targeting, are often borne out of necessity and an inability to get the sheer number of candidates needed. Targeting brought an outstanding result in 2005 with the election of George Galloway. Greens had to adjust to this political shock and at the time there was little room for complacency about this potential electoral competitor that could possibly affect us. A year onwards there is a sense amongst Greens that any threat to us in terms of local elections, the Welsh Assembly, London Assembly or Euro Elections from Respect is diminishing rapidly.

The demographics that enabled Galloway to win in Bethnal Green and Bow, and for Respect to elect 12 councillors in Tower Hamlets are unique. The circumstances in which the 2005 election result occurred were also unique and no Labour MP will make a similar voting mistake during their term of office, although it is to be hoped that Labour will avoid ever taking us into an American led war ever again.

Outside of London and the outstanding presence of Salma Yaqoob, Respect has very little in place to suggest that it can get established nationally. Unlike the organic growth of the Socialist Party in particular areas, or the progress of IWCA, Respect are being forced to graft a political movement into the potentially favourable local political scenes in Liverpool and Manchester. This is a difficult task and like the Greens, Respect can only instantly prosper in new areas if existing campaigners and political activists can be persuaded to come on board.

Leading members of the Green Party Executive are driving socially progressive politics into the heart of the Green agenda. We will continue to have issues arising out the fundamental decentralist nature of the Green Party, but these are also being assessed constitutionally. I am now satisfied that that the manifesto we will present in the Welsh Assembly elections next year, the London Assembly elections in 2008 and the European Elections in 2009, will be one suitable for voters who want progressive, left of Labour candidates elected in future PR elections.

The criticism that the Greens are all white and middle class is no longer valid. In the last year the Black and Minority Ethnicities group within the Greens has made tremendous strides. Our language project has enabled us to put up speakers for interviews on Tamil TV network, Channel S and other non-English language stations during these local elections. The fact that over 20% of our staff and volunteers in our offices are B&ME and that we stood our largest total of B&ME candidates ever nationwide is an indication that things are rapidly changing within the Green Party.

Only the Greens have the ability to appeal beyond the small demographic that is left politics. Our message is that there is a fundamental issue of Climate Change. This can only be dealt with by major changes to our thinking, lifestyle and consumption and require a global vision as well as a local focus. These are also changes that will make society a better place to live and improve the quality of life for most people. Such clarity of thinking, honesty and a sense of purpose attracts people with no political orientation and those currently unhappily mired in the soggy centre ground of politics.

Green strategy is based on a tipping point timescale that requires radical action and intervention within 20 to 25 years. It is not enough to follow the European Green model of 5 to 10% support and a role in coalition politics that often requires difficult compromises and unsatisfactory electoral arrangements. It is not enough simply to hold the balance of power of councils, implementing useful policies but hamstrung by the conservatism of others. We must become the main opposition and then gain control of councils to implement practical but radical action.

It is also not enough for us to gain a foothold in national politics and become a minority partner in a coalition government. Our aim must be more ambitious. Our 92 elected councillors are the evidence that we are continually building support even under the first past the post system. We will have well over 100 councillors at this time next year and our first Welsh Assembly members. The Scottish Greens are likely to gain councillors all over the country to link up the national political presence and the local grassroots activity under the new PR system for electing Scottish councillors in 2007.

Green politics is the growing force. It is the future in British politics and has a global resonance. The door is wide open for radical, progressive activists on the left to join us and to make a practical difference in local, regional and national politics.
 

 

 

May 2006

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